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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd